Midyear Market Outlooks

\"\"

Positioning for a New Economic Landscape

Posted by CopyTeam

 

In its midyear review, market analysts at Charles Schwab say that economic growth in the United States may have peaked in the second quarter of this year, and it believes China experienced its peak in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, Schwab is bullish on Europe’s prospects for the rest of this year. It notes that the rollout of Europe’s largest-ever stimulus plan should aid growth and the region still has some way to go before peaking — meaning eurozone stocks could deliver further gains.1

 

Consider that, because the overall stock market performed well in the first half of the year while bonds underperformed, it’s possible your asset allocation may be skewed. Feel free to contact us for advice on rebalancing your portfolio midyear. This will enable you to cash in on gains and reassess how to potentially position your equity allocation given market projections for the second half of 2021.

 

Morgan Stanley is bullish on sustained growth in the U.S., citing three factors that appear to be driving the economy. The first is the high savings and consumer spending rate. Despite job losses throughout 2020, U.S. households were bolstered by stimulus payments and supplemental unemployment benefits. As a result, the average household income has already exceeded its pre-COVID level. Consumer demand fuels corporate prospects, so the money manager expects capital spending to continue here and in other developed countries throughout the globe. And finally, Morgan Stanley economists predict that the nation’s core inflation will rise above 2% by year’s end, but not enough to trigger the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.2

 

At JP Morgan, economists believe that robust growth and rising inflation in the U.S. will prompt the Fed to taper bond purchases by the end of this year and begin to raise short-term rates as early as the fourth quarter of 2022. Investors should consider that rising rates will produce higher yields that will increase pressure equity valuations. Furthermore, the falling dollar will benefit international equities. The money manager recommends investors consider higher allocations to international equities and alternatives in the near-term.3

 

In the fixed income market, Raymond James emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation to maintain portfolio balance, regardless of the current interest rate environment. The firm’s fixed income experts believe the 10-year Treasury will end the year in the range of 1.25% to 1.80%. By diversifying assets with a balanced approach, investors can preserve principal and allocate for growth in assets expected in appreciate in price.4

 

In the stock market, given the reopening of the U.S. economy, Ameriprise Financial expects continued price growth among cyclical value stocks, improving business trends and strong year-over-year profit growth. While stock fundamentals remain strong, they suffer more from investor views that the market isn’t performing as strong as it could be, which can damper enthusiasm. Going forward, Ameriprise analysts caution that share prices may fluctuate due to changes in growth expectations. Given the uncertainties related to higher inflation and supply shortages, they recognize that short-term conditions may be volatile through the summer but, in the long term, the current environment favors stocks.5

 

\"\"

If you want to learn more about Midyear Outlooks and Reviews, listen to our podcast HERE. On it we discuss topics like Preparing for Tax Increases, Mid-Year Portfolio Review, Avoid Outliving Your Savings, and How Will Your Retirement Account Distributions Be Taxed? See our full line-up for THRIVE RETIREMENT ROADMAP.

 

https://thrivefinancialservices.flywheelsites.com/financial-services/

https://www.meetthrive.com/schedule-an-appointment

https://thrivefinancialservices.flywheelsites.com/media/

 
1 Charles Schwab. June 15, 2021. “2021 Mid-Year Market Outlook: Peak or Pause?” https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/quarterly-market-outlook. Accessed June 16, 2021.
2 Morgan Stanley. June 9, 2021. “2021 Midyear Economic Outlook: A Business Investment Surge Ahead.” https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-economy-midyear-outlook-2021. Accessed June 16, 2021.
3 JP Morgan. 2021. “The Investment Outlook for 2021: A Midyear Review.” https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/investment-outlook-2021-us.pdf. Accessed June 16, 2021.
4 Doug Drabik. Raymond James. June 14, 2021. “Midyear Rate Review: Markets and Investing.” https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/markets-investing/2021/06/14/bond-market-commentary. Accessed June 16, 2021.
5 Anthony Saglimbene. Ameriprise Financial. June 15, 2021. “Midyear market review: What’s ahead for stocks.” https://www.ameriprise.com/financial-news-research/insights/midyear-market-review. Accessed June 16, 2021.
Content prepared by Kara Stefan Communications.
7/21-1711660C
We are an independent financial services firm helping individuals create retirement strategies using a variety of investment and insurance products to custom suit their needs and objectives. Advisory services offered through Thrive Capital Management, LLC., an SEC Registered Investment Advisory firm. Insurance products and services offered through Thrive Financial Services, LLC. The information contained in this material is given for informational purposes only, and no statement contained herein shall constitute tax, legal or investment advice. The information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual’s situation. You should seek advice on legal and tax questions from an independent attorney or tax advisor. Our firm is not affiliated with the U.S. government or any governmental agency. 
Please note that we are unable to accept any trade requests via email, voice message or text. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. None of the information contained on this website shall constitute an offer to sell or solicit any offer to buy a security or any insurance product. Any references to protection benefit or steady and reliable income streams on this website refer only to fixed insurance products. They do not refer, in any way, to securities or investment advisory products. Annuity guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Annuities are insurance products that may be subject to fees, surrender charges and holding periods which vary by insurance company. Annuities are not FDIC insured.
The information and opinions contained in any of the material requested from this website are provided by third parties and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. They are given for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of the products mentioned.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

Scroll to Top
Call Now Button